By Fesochukwu Obiukwu
Nigeria’s $44.06bn export performance in the first nine months of 2025 has strengthened foreign exchange supply and supported renewed stability in the naira, but pressure is mounting for the gains to translate into tangible relief for businesses and households.
Fresh data from the Central Bank of Nigeria show that exports rose from $40.29bn in the corresponding period of 2024 to $44.06bn in 2025, representing a $3.76bn increase. The improvement comes amid ongoing macroeconomic reforms aimed at stabilising the currency and rebuilding investor confidence.
At the official market, the naira has shown sustained appreciation at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, closing at 1,351.02 to the dollar earlier this week, after gaining N20.36 in the preceding week to settle at 1,366.19. Analysts attribute the performance to stronger dollar inflows from exports, foreign portfolio investors and improved liquidity management.
However, beyond currency charts and export statistics, economic stakeholders are increasingly focused on whether the headline numbers will ease production costs and lower consumer prices.
Monthly trade data indicate that July 2025 recorded the strongest export performance at $5.85bn, followed by May at $5.18bn. In contrast, March and January 2025 were the weakest months at $4.54bn and $4.59bn respectively. Compared with 2024, the widest gap occurred in July with a $1.26bn difference, while August recorded the narrowest margin at $28.34m.
Industry leaders say oil remains the dominant driver of export growth, supported by improved crude output and expanded petroleum product shipments. At the same time, non-oil exports are gradually gaining traction, reflecting efforts by the Nigerian Export Promotion Council to diversify the country’s export base.
Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, described the export figures as encouraging, noting that stronger export receipts have contributed to exchange rate stability. He argued that sustained appreciation of the naira could reduce import costs and ease pressure on manufacturers dependent on foreign inputs.
Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, a former chairman of the export group at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the upward trajectory signals that current export strategies are yielding results. He noted that recent non-oil export figures released by NEPC suggest improving performance, though he cautioned that Nigeria still underperforms relative to its economic size.
Ayemibo stressed that strengthening institutions such as the Nigerian Export-Import Bank would be critical to sustaining growth through export credit insurance and financing support.
Manufacturers have also welcomed the currency’s relative stability. Dr Benedict Obhiosa, Secretary of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group, said a stable exchange rate reduces uncertainty in pricing imported machinery and raw materials. He added that if the trend continues into 2026, it could improve planning and lower operational risks in the real sector.
Yet concerns remain about weak transmission of macroeconomic gains to the broader population. While export growth boosts reserves and supports the naira, stakeholders argue that rising rents and persistently high food prices suggest limited pass-through effects so far.
Economists note that without stronger competition, regulatory oversight and targeted support for domestic production, exchange rate gains alone may not automatically translate into lower living costs.
For policymakers, the next test is whether Nigeria can convert export momentum into inclusive growth. Sustaining diversification beyond oil, strengthening export financing institutions and ensuring policy consistency will determine whether the recent $44bn milestone becomes a turning point or a temporary reprieve for the naira.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.