Juliet Ezeh
Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported petrol in 2025 is raising fresh concerns among energy experts, not just about supply gaps, but about deeper structural weaknesses in the country’s oil sector.
New data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the country spent N8.96 trillion on petrol imports within the year. While lower than the previous year’s figure, the amount remains significantly high for a country that has recently expanded its refining capacity.
Rather than viewing the figures as a simple supply issue, analysts say the data exposes a more complex problem: Nigeria’s refining growth is not yet translating into real independence from foreign fuel.
At the centre of expectations is the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely seen as a game changer for the downstream sector. However, industry insiders note that refining capacity alone does not automatically eliminate imports. The real challenge lies in ensuring steady crude supply, efficient distribution systems, and a stable pricing structure.
In practical terms, Nigeria is facing what experts describe as a “capacity versus output gap.” While the country now has more refining infrastructure than before, actual production remains constrained by feedstock shortages, logistics bottlenecks, and market uncertainties.
This explains why imports still account for a dominant share of petrol supply despite local production. It also highlights a key issue often overlooked in public discussions: building refineries is only one part of the solution, while managing the entire supply chain is the real test.
The financial implications are equally significant. Heavy reliance on fuel imports continues to put pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, as billions of naira are converted to dollars to fund purchases from international suppliers. Economists warn that this trend could weaken the naira over time and increase exposure to global price shocks.
Another major concern is policy coordination. Some experts argue that inconsistencies in crude allocation and regulatory decisions are slowing the ability of domestic refineries to operate at full capacity. Without clear and efficient policies, the transition from import dependence to local sufficiency may remain slow.
There are also growing calls for long-term solutions, including the creation of a strategic fuel reserve system and stronger support for domestic refiners. Such measures, analysts say, would help stabilise supply, reduce emergency imports, and strengthen energy security.
Ultimately, the 2025 petrol import figures do more than highlight spending—they reveal the complexity of Nigeria’s energy transition. The country is no longer lacking in ambition or infrastructure, but it is still struggling to align production, policy, and market realities.
Until these gaps are addressed, Nigeria may continue to face a difficult reality: being a major oil producer that still depends heavily on imported fuel to keep its economy running.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.