Fesochukwu Jason
Global fears of a deepening food crisis are intensifying as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt energy markets, drive up fertiliser costs, and strain already fragile food supply chains.
Top global institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank Group, have warned that the ripple effects of the war are spreading rapidly across the global economy, with food systems now facing significant pressure.
The institutions, which recently met to coordinate responses to the crisis, described the impact as “substantial, global, and highly uneven,” noting that low-income and energy-importing countries are the most vulnerable.
At the centre of the disruption is a sharp rise in energy prices. The conflict has affected key oil and gas supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for global energy shipments.
With shipping activities yet to fully stabilise, experts say supply disruptions could persist, keeping fuel prices elevated for a prolonged period. This has a direct impact on agriculture, as higher fuel costs increase the price of transportation, food production, and fertiliser manufacturing.
As a result, global food security is coming under increasing strain.
Farmers in many regions are already facing rising fertiliser costs, which could reduce crop yields in the coming seasons. At the same time, higher transportation costs are pushing up the price of food commodities, making essential goods less affordable, especially in developing countries.
Recent data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that global food prices rose for the second consecutive month in March. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.5 points, reflecting increases across major commodity groups.
Vegetable oil prices recorded one of the steepest increases, rising by over five per cent within a month and significantly above last year’s levels. Analysts attribute this to growing demand for biofuels as crude oil prices rise, which diverts agricultural products away from food supply.
Sugar prices also surged, driven by expectations that major producers such as Brazil may allocate more sugarcane to ethanol production instead of food markets.
Cereal prices saw moderate increases, with wheat prices rising amid concerns over drought conditions in the United States and reduced planting expectations in Australia. Maize prices edged higher due to steady demand, while rice prices declined slightly due to weaker import demand and currency pressures in some countries.
Animal product markets showed mixed trends. Meat prices rose slightly due to supply constraints in key exporting regions, while dairy prices increased due to seasonal production challenges.
Beyond price increases, the broader economic effects of the conflict are also contributing to food insecurity. The war has disrupted employment, displaced populations, and slowed tourism and trade in affected regions.
These developments are reducing household incomes and limiting the ability of governments to support vulnerable populations.
Experts warn that if the conflict continues, the situation could worsen significantly. Disruptions to energy supply routes could further increase the cost of fertilisers and food production, potentially leading to shortages of essential commodities.
Countries already facing high debt levels are considered the most at risk, as rising import costs may force governments to reduce food purchases or turn to lower-quality alternatives.
To address the crisis, global organisations are calling for urgent policy action. Suggested measures include securing alternative trade routes for agricultural inputs, protecting humanitarian supply chains, and strengthening social safety programmes.
Long-term solutions are also being emphasised, including investment in storage infrastructure, improved transportation systems, and more efficient use of fertilisers to enhance resilience.
The IMF and World Bank have indicated they are ready to provide financial support and policy guidance to countries most affected by the crisis, while coordination efforts among international institutions are expected to continue.
Despite these measures, uncertainty remains high. Analysts say that even if the conflict eases soon, it may take time for global supply chains to recover and for food prices to stabilise.
For many vulnerable populations around the world, the risk of a worsening food crisis is becoming increasingly real.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.