Fesochukwu Jason
Fresh uncertainty has gripped Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector following Iran’s abrupt decision to reclose the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has dashed expectations of a sharp drop in petrol prices across the country.
The development came less than 24 hours after the critical oil transit route was reopened as part of a fragile ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States. The reopening had briefly sparked optimism among global oil traders and Nigerian fuel marketers, who projected that pump prices could fall significantly in the coming days.
However, that optimism proved short-lived.
On Saturday, Iranian authorities announced that control of the Strait had “returned to its previous state,” effectively reinstating restrictions on maritime movement through one of the world’s most vital oil corridors. Reports indicated that Iranian naval forces confronted and fired at a merchant vessel attempting to pass through the waterway, heightening tensions and signaling a breakdown in the ceasefire’s implementation.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important chokepoints in global energy supply, with roughly 20 percent of the world’s traded crude oil passing through it daily. Any disruption in this corridor has immediate implications for international oil prices and supply chains.
For Nigeria, a country heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, the impact is particularly significant.
Prior to the reclosure, Nigerian fuel marketers had expressed strong optimism that petrol prices currently around ₦1,250 per litre could drop to as low as ₦900 per litre if stability in the Middle East was sustained.
Joseph Obele, spokesperson for the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), had noted that global crude oil prices began to decline following the initial reopening of the Strait. He recalled that petrol prices in Nigeria were below ₦800 before the escalation of tensions in late February, suggesting that a return to that price range was possible under stable conditions.
By Sunday, however, that outlook had changed.
Obele acknowledged that the reclosure had effectively erased any immediate prospects of relief at the pumps, noting that the current pricing structure is likely to remain until there is a more stable and lasting resolution between both parties.
Despite renewed tensions, the global oil market has not reacted with a sharp spike. Brent crude traded at approximately $90 per barrel on Sunday, slightly up from $88 before the reclosure, but still below the $95 recorded earlier in the week.
Analysts suggest that traders remain cautiously optimistic that the disruption may not escalate further, although continued instability could trigger more volatility in the coming days.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement by attacking ships in the Strait, describing the move as a “total violation.” He also issued strong warnings, threatening potential action against Iran’s infrastructure if a broader peace deal is not reached.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with negotiators from both sides expected to meet again in Islamabad, Pakistan. The current ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, leaving a narrow window for both parties to reach a lasting agreement.
For Nigerians, the situation represents yet another setback, as high fuel prices continue to drive up transportation costs, food prices, and overall inflation.
Industry stakeholders warn that unless there is a sustained de-escalation in the Middle East, Nigerians may have to brace for prolonged high fuel costs or even further increases.
For now, hopes of immediate relief have been put on hold, as both global markets and local stakeholders await the outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.