Lilian Ugwu
Nigeria’s downstream oil sector is facing renewed structural pressure as Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals cut its petrol gantry price to N1,200 per litre, even as the facility grapples with persistent crude oil supply shortfalls.
The price adjustment, confirmed by the Dangote Group’s spokesperson, Anthony Chiejina, reflects a recalibration of the refinery’s pricing model amid volatile global oil conditions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
However, industry analysts say the reduction underscores deeper operational constraints, particularly the refinery’s inability to secure sufficient crude to sustain optimal production levels.
Findings indicate that the 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity plant has recorded a cumulative crude deficit of over 79 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, significantly below its monthly requirement of approximately 19.77 million barrels.
Data reviewed shows fluctuating supply volumes, with deliveries consistently falling short of operational needs, raising concerns over feedstock security for Africa’s largest refinery.
Despite the Federal Government’s push for local refining under the Petroleum Industry Act, tensions appear to persist between domestic supply obligations and continued crude exports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
Senior industry sources argue that the situation highlights a critical disconnect in Nigeria’s oil policy execution, where local refining capacity expansion is not being matched with guaranteed crude allocation.
The refinery’s management has also raised concerns over the implementation of the naira-for-crude arrangement, with reports indicating that actual deliveries have fallen significantly below agreed volumes.
Managing Director, David Bird, recently disclosed that the facility receives an average of five cargoes instead of the 13 cargoes initially agreed under the deal, further compounding supply constraints.
Market observers note that while the price reduction may offer marginal relief to marketers and consumers, it does little to address the underlying supply instability that continues to shape pricing volatility.
The new gantry price of N1,200 per litre, alongside a coastal rate of N1,153, is expected to influence distribution dynamics, particularly for marketers sourcing products locally. However, stakeholders warn that inconsistent crude supply could limit the sustainability of such pricing adjustments.
For Westbridge analysts, the development signals a broader challenge within Nigeria’s oil sector, balancing export revenue priorities with domestic refining demands in a way that ensures long-term energy security.
Until crude supply bottlenecks are resolved, the refinery’s pricing strategy may remain reactive, reflecting ongoing tension between ambition and operational reality in Nigeria’s evolving petroleum landscape.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.