By Juliet Ezeh
Crude oil production in Nigeria dropped to 1.31 million barrels per day in February 2026, deepening concerns over the country’s ability to meet both export commitments and domestic refining demands.
Figures from the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries showed that Nigeria’s output declined sharply from 1.459 million barrels per day recorded in January.
The new production level represents a 146,000 barrels-per-day drop, leaving the country once again below its 1.5 million barrels-per-day production quota approved by OPEC.
The decline is also raising fresh worries about crude supply for local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which requires large volumes of feedstock to maintain full operations.
Industry sources say domestic refineries have continued to struggle with inadequate crude supply despite the Federal Government’s push to expand local refining capacity.
Officials at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited had earlier disclosed that the national oil company was exploring alternative crude sourcing arrangements through international traders to support the Dangote refinery’s operations.
According to insiders, the refinery currently receives about five cargoes of crude monthly, significantly below the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude supply framework, forcing it to rely on imported crude purchased at international market prices.
Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC quota has now stretched for seven consecutive months, a development analysts warn could reduce government oil revenue and weaken the country’s position in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, the new leadership of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has pledged to boost output as part of broader efforts to revive the upstream sector.
The commission’s chief executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, recently stated that Nigeria aims to raise crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030, aligning with the economic agenda of Bola Tinubu.
However, with production declining early in 2026, industry stakeholders say achieving those targets will depend largely on improving crude supply stability, reducing operational losses, and accelerating new oil field developments.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.