Fesochukwu Jason
Nigeria’s power sector may be showing early signs of recovery, as electricity generation climbed from 3,951 megawatts (MW) to 4,300MW within two weeks—an improvement the Federal Government attributes largely to increased gas supply to thermal power plants.
The development, announced on Sunday in Abuja, reflects what officials describe as a gradual but measurable turnaround in a sector long plagued by instability, poor infrastructure, and supply constraints.
According to Bolaji Tunji, Special Adviser on Strategic Communications and Media Relations to the Minister of Power, the increase recorded between March 28 and April 10 aligns with earlier assurances by the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who had pledged noticeable improvements within a short timeframe.
At the heart of the recovery lies a critical factor: gas supply. Data from the ministry shows that gas availability to power plants rose significantly—from about 605 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) to over 704 mmscfd during the period under review.
This increase has had a direct impact on electricity generation. Nigeria’s power system relies heavily on thermal plants, which account for the majority of the country’s installed capacity. Any disruption in gas supply often leads to immediate drops in power output, making the gas-to-power chain one of the most sensitive links in the entire electricity value chain.
Tunji noted that improved gas supply has been complemented by better operational efficiency. Mechanical availability of power infrastructure remained stable and even peaked at over 7,796MW in early April. More importantly, operational availability—the actual usable capacity—rose from about 4,208MW to a peak of over 4,694MW.
These figures suggest that beyond just having capacity on paper, the system is increasingly able to convert available resources into usable electricity. This marks a critical shift in a sector where inefficiencies and technical losses have historically undermined performance.
Despite the progress, officials acknowledge that the gains remain fragile. Daily generation figures still fluctuate due to a variety of factors, including transmission constraints, maintenance issues, and gas supply inconsistencies.
Nevertheless, the overall trajectory points to cautious optimism.
“Despite minor fluctuations recorded on some days, the overall trend indicates a gradual recovery in the power sector,” Tunji said, emphasizing that improved coordination among stakeholders has played a key role.
To sustain this momentum, the Federal Government has moved to institutionalize oversight within the gas-to-power value chain. The recent inauguration of a Gas-to-Power Monitoring Committee is seen as a strategic step toward addressing long-standing bottlenecks.
The committee is expected to provide real-time monitoring of gas supply, improve coordination between gas producers and power generation companies, and ensure that disruptions are quickly identified and resolved.
Energy analysts say this move could be a game changer—if properly implemented.
For years, Nigeria’s power sector has suffered from a lack of coordination between upstream gas suppliers and downstream electricity producers. Payment disputes, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory challenges have often resulted in supply shortfalls that ripple across the entire system.
By focusing on real-time monitoring and stakeholder collaboration, the government appears to be targeting one of the root causes of Nigeria’s electricity crisis.
However, experts warn that increasing generation alone will not solve the country’s power challenges.
Transmission and distribution remain major weak links. Even when generation improves, bottlenecks in transmission infrastructure can prevent electricity from reaching consumers efficiently. Similarly, distribution companies often struggle with technical losses, metering gaps, and revenue collection issues.
Recognizing this, the Minister of Power has also turned attention to institutional reforms within the sector.
During a recent meeting with the new leadership of the Nigeria Electricity Management Services Agency (NEMSA), Adelabu emphasized the need for the agency to improve its internally generated revenue and reduce reliance on government funding.
He also called for the expansion of meter testing centres across the country, a move aimed at improving service delivery and addressing the persistent metering gap.
The lack of meters remains one of the most contentious issues in Nigeria’s electricity sector. Millions of consumers are still on estimated billing, leading to widespread dissatisfaction and disputes between customers and distribution companies.
By increasing the number of certified meter testing centres, the government hopes to accelerate metering efforts and restore consumer confidence.
Another major challenge identified by the minister is manpower shortage—particularly in the area of meter installation.
To address this, he called for closer collaboration between NEMSA and the National Power Training Institute of Nigeria. The goal is to train more technicians and installers who can support the nationwide rollout of meters and other critical infrastructure.
“We need to ensure more installers are trained in order to accelerate the government’s plan to bridge the meter gap,” the minister said.
Adelabu also urged the agency’s leadership to conduct a comprehensive assessment of its operations, identifying key challenges and areas requiring urgent intervention.
While these reforms signal a more proactive approach, the road to stable electricity in Nigeria remains long.
The current increase to 4,300MW, though significant, still falls far short of the country’s estimated demand, which runs into tens of thousands of megawatts. For a population of over 200 million people, the available power supply remains inadequate.
Yet, the recent improvement offers a glimpse of what is possible when key elements of the power value chain begin to align.
For households and businesses, even modest increases in electricity supply can have meaningful impacts—reducing reliance on expensive diesel generators, lowering operating costs, and improving quality of life.
For investors, the development could signal renewed confidence in the sector, particularly if the government sustains its focus on reforms and infrastructure improvements.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s power sector stands at a critical juncture.
The recent gains driven by improved gas supply highlight both the potential and the vulnerabilities of the system. Sustaining this progress will require not just short-term interventions, but long-term structural reforms across generation, transmission, and distribution.
As Tunji aptly noted, “We are not there yet,” but the current trajectory suggests that with consistent policy direction and stakeholder cooperation, Nigeria may finally be inching closer to a more stable and reliable electricity future.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.