Fesochukwu Jason
Nigeria’s oil-dependent trade strategy is facing renewed scrutiny after the United States sharply reduced its crude oil imports from the country by 47.16 per cent in January 2026, raising fresh concerns over policy direction and global competitiveness.
Latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that crude imports from Nigeria fell drastically from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to just 1.664 million barrels in January 2026 a steep drop that analysts say reflects deeper structural issues rather than temporary market shifts.
The decline comes despite an increase in Nigeria’s crude production to 1.64 million barrels per day within the same period, suggesting that higher output is no longer translating into stronger global demand — a trend many experts attribute to weak trade positioning and policy uncertainty.
In monetary terms, the impact was equally severe. The value of Nigerian crude exports to the U.S. dropped from $217.36 million to $115.99 million, further shrinking Nigeria’s already limited share in the American oil market.
Even more concerning is Nigeria’s declining influence within Africa’s oil export landscape. While Nigeria’s exports fell sharply, Angola significantly increased its shipments to the U.S., and Ghana emerged as a new supplier, highlighting a growing loss of market share to more competitive African producers.
The development has reignited criticism of Nigeria’s overdependence on crude oil exports, which still account for over 60 per cent of its exports to the United States. Analysts warn that the country’s failure to diversify its export base is leaving it increasingly vulnerable to external shocks and shifting global demand patterns.
The situation is further complicated by recent U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, including increased tariffs on Nigerian goods and stricter visa policies, both of which have strained bilateral trade relations and discouraged broader economic engagement.
Despite these warning signs, some policymakers have downplayed the impact. Economist Muda Yusuf argued that Nigeria’s trade exposure to the U.S. remains limited, noting that crude oil dominates exports while non-oil sectors remain underdeveloped.
However, critics insist that such positions overlook the bigger issue Nigeria’s inability to build a resilient and diversified export economy capable of competing globally.
Meanwhile, the United States recorded a growing trade surplus with Nigeria, as American exports to the country surged to $602 million in January, even as Nigeria’s exports declined significantly.
The widening trade imbalance has intensified concerns that Nigeria is gradually losing its footing in one of its key export markets, raising urgent questions about the effectiveness of its economic and trade policies.
With global oil dynamics shifting and new suppliers gaining ground, analysts warn that Nigeria risks further marginalisation unless it undertakes decisive reforms to strengthen its trade competitiveness and reduce its heavy reliance on crude oil.
Juliet Ezeh is the founder and chief reporter at Westbridge Reporters with over 7 years of experience in journalism. She covers crime, industry, policy, and social developments, delivering timely and accurate reporting.